Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-"lockdown" from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality.
Identifieur interne : 001021 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001020; suivant : 001022Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-"lockdown" from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality.
Auteurs : Mike Lonergan [Royaume-Uni] ; James D. Chalmers [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- The European respiratory journal [ 1399-3003 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Distance sociale (MeSH), Espagne (épidémiologie), France (épidémiologie), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Italie (épidémiologie), Modèles statistiques (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (mortalité), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Quarantaine (MeSH), Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie), Santé mondiale (MeSH), États-Unis (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- épidémiologie : Espagne, France, Infections à coronavirus, Italie, Pneumopathie virale, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis.
- Distance sociale, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Quarantaine, Santé mondiale.
- Wicri :
- geographic : France, Italie, Espagne, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), France (epidemiology), Global Health (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Italy (epidemiology), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Quarantine (MeSH), Social Distance (MeSH), Spain (epidemiology), United Kingdom (epidemiology), United States (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Global Health, Humans, Models, Statistical, Quarantine, Social Distance.
Abstract
By 21 May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) had caused more than 5 million cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) across more than 200 countries. Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or "lockdown" measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R0) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R0 before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R0 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.
DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01483-2020
PubMed: 32482785
PubMed Central: PMC7263071
Affiliations:
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Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or "lockdown" measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R<sub>0</sub> before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R<sub>0</sub> 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32482785</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>05</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>05</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1399-3003</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>56</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>The European respiratory journal</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Eur. Respir. J.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-"lockdown" from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">2001483</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1183/13993003.01483-2020</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>By 21 May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) had caused more than 5 million cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) across more than 200 countries. Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or "lockdown" measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R<sub>0</sub> before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R<sub>0</sub> 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright ©ERS 2020.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lonergan</LastName><ForeName>Mike</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK m.lonergan@dundee.ac.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chalmers</LastName><ForeName>James D</ForeName><Initials>JD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>23</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Eur Respir J</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>8803460</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0903-1936</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005602" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">France</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014943" MajorTopicYN="N">Global Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007558" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Italy</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011790" MajorTopicYN="N">Quarantine</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012929" MajorTopicYN="Y">Social Distance</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013030" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Spain</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006113" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United Kingdom</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United States</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><CoiStatement>Conflict of interest: M. Lonergan has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: J.D. Chalmers has received research grants from GlaxoSmithKline, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Grifols, Bayer AG, Polyphor and Insmed; and received consultancy, congress travel or speaker fees from GlaxoSmithKline, Bayer Healthcare, Aradigm Corporation, Grifols, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Napp and Insmed.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>26</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>6</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32482785</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">13993003.01483-2020</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1183/13993003.01483-2020</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7263071</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Crit Care Med. 2015 Jun;43(6):1344-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25978166</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:284-286</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32145466</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2020 May 22;368(6493):860-868</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32291278</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Apr 4;395(10230):1137-1144</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32178768</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e261-e270</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32220655</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Feb 22;274(1609):599-604</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17476782</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2020 Apr 9;369:m1435</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32273267</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Feb 20;382(8):727-733</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31978945</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Mar 28;395(10229):1054-1062</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32171076</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e279-e288</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32311320</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Eur Respir J. 2020 Jul 23;56(1):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32482785</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 10;725:138539</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32304973</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lonergan, Mike" sort="Lonergan, Mike" uniqKey="Lonergan M" first="Mike" last="Lonergan">Mike Lonergan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chalmers, James D" sort="Chalmers, James D" uniqKey="Chalmers J" first="James D" last="Chalmers">James D. 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